Lineminded
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August Young CFB
3-Unit Play (117) Kent State +52.5 -110 over Ohio State (9/19 @ 12:00PM EST) Ohio State's superiority is obvious, and its 56-3 win over Ball State shows the danger of taking this many points. Still, +53 requires the Buckeyes to sustain an enormous margin. Kent State's best route is modest offensive production behind dual-threat quarterback Dru DeShields, who accounted for 322 yards and three touchdowns in last week's win over Wofford. That performance came against much weaker opposition, but his mobility provides another way to extend possessions when passing opportunities disappear. Ohio State returns from its 24-23 loss at Texas with conference play beginning next week. If the result is settled early, substitutions and the closing possessions could decide the cover. We'll take +53, accepting that the blowout risk remains substantial.
3-Unit Play (126) Arkansas +24.5 -110 over Georgia (9/19 @ 12:00PM EST) We're taking Arkansas at home with more than three touchdowns. Georgia has scored 133 points against Tennessee State and Western Kentucky, with Gunner Stockton completing 28 of 32 passes for eight touchdowns. Those performances were outstanding, but this is the Bulldogs' first road game and conference test. Arkansas' 43-10 loss at Utah creates understandable pessimism, although KJ Jackson showed some promise in the home opener, completing 24 of 35 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns. That came against FCS opponent North Alabama, so it offers limited evidence against a defense of Georgia's quality. Still, Jackson's mobility gives Arkansas another way to extend possessions. A couple of scoring drives would provide a realistic path to covering, provided the defense improves considerably. Georgia should win, but we're backing Arkansas to offer more resistance in Fayetteville.
4-Unit Play (131) Eastern Michigan +23.5-110 over Wisconsin (9/19 @ 12:30PM EST) Wisconsin should control this game, but its offense has not shown enough to justify laying more than three touchdowns. The Badgers are averaging 345 yards through two games, following a 41-13 loss to Notre Dame with a 36-9 victory over FCS opponent Western Illinois. Eastern Michigan brings a few useful underdog traits: only 25.3 penalty yards per game, five takeaways and an experienced quarterback in Noah Kim, who has thrown for 571 yards. Amareon Blue is also averaging 5.7 yards per carry. The Eagles' 35-7 loss at Michigan State highlights the obvious concern against bigger opposition, but their discipline can help limit unnecessary damage. Wisconsin's passing game remains unconvincing, and Eastern has enough offensive options to threaten a late cover. We'll take the 24 points.
3-Unit Play (141) SMU +1.5 -110 over Louisville (9/19 @ 3:30PM EST) SMU's passing game gives us a strong reason to take the small number. Kevin Jennings has already thrown for 767 yards and eight touchdowns, including 430 yards in the road win at Florida State. That 27-24 result was closer than the underlying performance: SMU finished with a 585-324 yardage advantage despite committing four turnovers. The Mustangs also held Florida State to 2 of 15 on third down, showing they could get stops when possessions mattered. Louisville's explosive offense presents a tougher challenge, and SMU cannot afford another mistake-filled road performance. However, Jennings provides experience and enough big-play ability to answer scoring runs. With an outright win well within reach, we'll take SMU and the points.
3-Unit Play (167) Florida International +6.5 -110 over Florida Atlantic (9/19 @ 6:00PM EST) We backed Florida Atlantic against Navy last week, but this matchup gives us reasons to take the other side. FIU quarterback J.J. Kohl has passed for more than 300 yards in both games and is averaging 334 passing yards. His protection has been excellent, with the Panthers allowing only one sack through two weeks. FIU then generated 540 total yards in its 33-20 victory over Buffalo. That creates a very different assignment for FAU after preparing for Navy's option offense. Caden Veltkamp remains dangerous following his five-touchdown performance, so FIU will need to trade scores. However, the Panthers' passing production and protection give them a credible way to do that. We'll take +7 in a rivalry FIU won 38-28 last season.
3-Unit Play (169) Charlotte +17.5 -110 over Appalachian State (9/19 @ 6:00PM EST) Charlotte's 0-2 start looks ugly, but there is more offensive ability here than the record suggests. The 49ers outgained The Citadel 538-400 in their triple-overtime loss, with Cole Gonzales throwing for 322 yards. The defensive concerns are legitimate, but Appalachian State has questions of its own when being asked to win by three scores. In last week's 27-24 victory at East Carolina, the Mountaineers were outgained 417-396 and averaged only 2.9 yards per rush. That matters because consistently extending a lead becomes harder when the ground game struggles to finish possessions. Charlotte needs to limit mistakes, but it has shown enough ability to move the ball to make +17.5 attractive. We'll take the points.
3-Unit Play (214) Sacramento State +27.5 -110 over North Dakota State (9/19 @ 10:30PM EST) Sacramento State's 49-3 loss at Fresno State exposed serious offensive concerns, but nearly four touchdowns provides considerable room here. North Dakota State deserves respect at 3-0, although its first road game finished 38-32 at Air Force after a 35-13 lead narrowed considerably. The Bison now travel again, and their excellent early defensive numbers include four takeaways against Fordham. We should be cautious about expecting that level of turnover assistance every week. Sacramento State has already shown it can lose more competitively, falling 28-17 at Eastern Michigan in its opener. The Hornets must improve their execution and avoid another prolonged scoring drought. We're backing the sizeable home cushion, with enough room for North Dakota State to control the game and still fall short of covering.
3-Unit Play (215) Fresno State -6.5 -110 over San Jose State (9/19 @ 11:00PM EST) Fresno State showed substantial offensive improvement in its 49-3 victory over Sacramento State. Jayden Mandal completed 23 of 26 passes for 316 yards, while Bryson Donelson added 102 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The Bulldogs generated 542 yards with just one defensive takeaway, an encouraging sign that the scoring came primarily from moving the football. San Jos? State enters 2-1, but its victories came by six against Eastern Michigan and ten against FCS opponent Cal Poly. Quarterback Luke Weaver's eight touchdown passes demand respect, so Fresno will need another efficient offensive performance. Sacramento State was a forgiving opponent, but the balance Fresno displayed gives us a reasonable case for laying less than a touchdown. We'll take -6.5.
3-Unit Play (117) Kent State +52.5 -110 over Ohio State (9/19 @ 12:00PM EST) Ohio State's superiority is obvious, and its 56-3 win over Ball State shows the danger of taking this many points. Still, +53 requires the Buckeyes to sustain an enormous margin. Kent State's best route is modest offensive production behind dual-threat quarterback Dru DeShields, who accounted for 322 yards and three touchdowns in last week's win over Wofford. That performance came against much weaker opposition, but his mobility provides another way to extend possessions when passing opportunities disappear. Ohio State returns from its 24-23 loss at Texas with conference play beginning next week. If the result is settled early, substitutions and the closing possessions could decide the cover. We'll take +53, accepting that the blowout risk remains substantial.
3-Unit Play (126) Arkansas +24.5 -110 over Georgia (9/19 @ 12:00PM EST) We're taking Arkansas at home with more than three touchdowns. Georgia has scored 133 points against Tennessee State and Western Kentucky, with Gunner Stockton completing 28 of 32 passes for eight touchdowns. Those performances were outstanding, but this is the Bulldogs' first road game and conference test. Arkansas' 43-10 loss at Utah creates understandable pessimism, although KJ Jackson showed some promise in the home opener, completing 24 of 35 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns. That came against FCS opponent North Alabama, so it offers limited evidence against a defense of Georgia's quality. Still, Jackson's mobility gives Arkansas another way to extend possessions. A couple of scoring drives would provide a realistic path to covering, provided the defense improves considerably. Georgia should win, but we're backing Arkansas to offer more resistance in Fayetteville.
4-Unit Play (131) Eastern Michigan +23.5-110 over Wisconsin (9/19 @ 12:30PM EST) Wisconsin should control this game, but its offense has not shown enough to justify laying more than three touchdowns. The Badgers are averaging 345 yards through two games, following a 41-13 loss to Notre Dame with a 36-9 victory over FCS opponent Western Illinois. Eastern Michigan brings a few useful underdog traits: only 25.3 penalty yards per game, five takeaways and an experienced quarterback in Noah Kim, who has thrown for 571 yards. Amareon Blue is also averaging 5.7 yards per carry. The Eagles' 35-7 loss at Michigan State highlights the obvious concern against bigger opposition, but their discipline can help limit unnecessary damage. Wisconsin's passing game remains unconvincing, and Eastern has enough offensive options to threaten a late cover. We'll take the 24 points.
3-Unit Play (141) SMU +1.5 -110 over Louisville (9/19 @ 3:30PM EST) SMU's passing game gives us a strong reason to take the small number. Kevin Jennings has already thrown for 767 yards and eight touchdowns, including 430 yards in the road win at Florida State. That 27-24 result was closer than the underlying performance: SMU finished with a 585-324 yardage advantage despite committing four turnovers. The Mustangs also held Florida State to 2 of 15 on third down, showing they could get stops when possessions mattered. Louisville's explosive offense presents a tougher challenge, and SMU cannot afford another mistake-filled road performance. However, Jennings provides experience and enough big-play ability to answer scoring runs. With an outright win well within reach, we'll take SMU and the points.
3-Unit Play (167) Florida International +6.5 -110 over Florida Atlantic (9/19 @ 6:00PM EST) We backed Florida Atlantic against Navy last week, but this matchup gives us reasons to take the other side. FIU quarterback J.J. Kohl has passed for more than 300 yards in both games and is averaging 334 passing yards. His protection has been excellent, with the Panthers allowing only one sack through two weeks. FIU then generated 540 total yards in its 33-20 victory over Buffalo. That creates a very different assignment for FAU after preparing for Navy's option offense. Caden Veltkamp remains dangerous following his five-touchdown performance, so FIU will need to trade scores. However, the Panthers' passing production and protection give them a credible way to do that. We'll take +7 in a rivalry FIU won 38-28 last season.
3-Unit Play (169) Charlotte +17.5 -110 over Appalachian State (9/19 @ 6:00PM EST) Charlotte's 0-2 start looks ugly, but there is more offensive ability here than the record suggests. The 49ers outgained The Citadel 538-400 in their triple-overtime loss, with Cole Gonzales throwing for 322 yards. The defensive concerns are legitimate, but Appalachian State has questions of its own when being asked to win by three scores. In last week's 27-24 victory at East Carolina, the Mountaineers were outgained 417-396 and averaged only 2.9 yards per rush. That matters because consistently extending a lead becomes harder when the ground game struggles to finish possessions. Charlotte needs to limit mistakes, but it has shown enough ability to move the ball to make +17.5 attractive. We'll take the points.
3-Unit Play (214) Sacramento State +27.5 -110 over North Dakota State (9/19 @ 10:30PM EST) Sacramento State's 49-3 loss at Fresno State exposed serious offensive concerns, but nearly four touchdowns provides considerable room here. North Dakota State deserves respect at 3-0, although its first road game finished 38-32 at Air Force after a 35-13 lead narrowed considerably. The Bison now travel again, and their excellent early defensive numbers include four takeaways against Fordham. We should be cautious about expecting that level of turnover assistance every week. Sacramento State has already shown it can lose more competitively, falling 28-17 at Eastern Michigan in its opener. The Hornets must improve their execution and avoid another prolonged scoring drought. We're backing the sizeable home cushion, with enough room for North Dakota State to control the game and still fall short of covering.
3-Unit Play (215) Fresno State -6.5 -110 over San Jose State (9/19 @ 11:00PM EST) Fresno State showed substantial offensive improvement in its 49-3 victory over Sacramento State. Jayden Mandal completed 23 of 26 passes for 316 yards, while Bryson Donelson added 102 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The Bulldogs generated 542 yards with just one defensive takeaway, an encouraging sign that the scoring came primarily from moving the football. San Jos? State enters 2-1, but its victories came by six against Eastern Michigan and ten against FCS opponent Cal Poly. Quarterback Luke Weaver's eight touchdown passes demand respect, so Fresno will need another efficient offensive performance. Sacramento State was a forgiving opponent, but the balance Fresno displayed gives us a reasonable case for laying less than a touchdown. We'll take -6.5.