The 2026 US Open has changed shape quickly. Jannik Sinner withdrew with a right knee injury, Novak Djokovic crashed out to Mariano Navone, and Carlos Alcaraz returned after four months away with a wrist injury. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka opened her bid for a third straight New York title with a 6-2, 6-4 win over Camila Osorio.
Those developments pushed Alcaraz and Sabalenka to the front of the outright markets. Alcaraz is now +225 at bet365, narrowly ahead of Alexander Zverev at +275. Sabalenka sits around +370 in the best available market. Swiatek and Gauff follow.
US Open Outright Odds
The table covers outright championship prices only, though live betting odds can shift as the draw keeps changing daily.
| Men’s Contender | Odds | Women’s Contender | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | +225 | Aryna Sabalenka | +370 |
| Alexander Zverev | +275 | Iga Swiatek | +550 |
| Ben Shelton | +850 | Coco Gauff | +600 |
| Arthur Fils | +850 | Elena Rybakina | +1100 |
| Taylor Fritz | +900 | Naomi Osaka | +1200 |
| Rafael Jodar | +1000 | Jessica Pegula | +1300 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | +2200 | Mirra Andreeva | +1500 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +2500 | Amanda Anisimova | +1800 |
| Jakub Mensik | +2800 | Marta Kostyuk | +2000 |
| Brandon Nakashima | +3300 | Linda Noskova | +2800 |
Alcaraz’s price reflects opportunity and uncertainty. The Sinner withdrawal removed the player who entered New York ranked No. 1 after winning Wimbledon and posting a 44-3 record this season. Djokovic’s defeat removed another former champion from Alcaraz’s side of the title conversation.
Alcaraz Has The Clearest Men’s Path
Alcaraz arrived as defending champion after beating Sinner in the 2025 final. He owns two US Open trophies, a 24-3 career record in New York before this year. Match fitness is the concern. His Barcelona wrist injury kept him out of singles competition for 139 days.
Zverev is the strongest alternative. The German won Roland Garros in June for his first major championship and sits only 50 points longer than Alcaraz on the betting board. His serve and baseline weight travel well to hard courts, and Sinner’s absence removes the tournament’s highest-ranked player.
Shelton, Fils and Fritz form the next tier. Shelton brings explosive serving and home support. Fritz has already reached a US Open final. Fils owns enough athleticism to make +850 interesting, though his route carries more variance than the top two.
Sabalenka Still Owns New York
Sabalenka’s opening win over Osorio extended her US Open winning streak to 14 matches. She won the title in 2024 and 2025 and is trying to become the first player since Serena Williams from 2012 through 2014 to win three consecutive women’s singles titles in New York. The WTA match report recorded 23 unforced errors from Sabalenka, yet she still closed the match in 87 minutes.
Her recent form leaves room for challengers. Sabalenka has not reached a final since Miami. She lost in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, the fourth round at Wimbledon, and the fourth round in Cincinnati.
Swiatek at +550 offers the shortest challenger price. Gauff at +600 carries a proven New York résumé after winning here in 2023. Rybakina’s +1100 number is appealing for bettors who value serve dominance, though recent foot trouble adds risk. Osaka at +1200 has two US Open titles and remains dangerous on a fast hard court.
Who Is The Better Favorite?
Sabalenka looks safer than Alcaraz. Her New York record, ranking and straight-sets opener supply recent evidence. Alcaraz owns the higher ceiling on the men’s side, but his long layoff creates a variable that the +225 price does not fully erase.
The stronger value may sit one line below each favorite. Zverev at +275 is close enough to Alcaraz to challenge without requiring a long-shot leap. Swiatek at +550 offers more payout room than Sabalenka and owns a 2022 US Open title.
Alcaraz and Sabalenka remain the players to beat. Neither market is closed, and the opening weekend has already shown how quickly New York can punish a favorite.
